In this lecture, we cover fundamentals of discrete-event system (DES) simulation (DESS). This involves reviewing basic simulation concepts (entities, resources, attributes, events, activities, delays) and introducing the event-scheduling world view, which provides a causality framework on which an automatic simulation of a DES system can be built. We also discuss briefly how the stochastic modeling inherent to DESS means that outputs will be variable and thus will require rigorous statistics to make sense of.
IEE 475: Simulating Stochastic Systems
Archived lectures from undergraduate course on stochastic simulation given at Arizona State University by Ted Pavlic
Tuesday, September 1, 2026
Thursday, August 27, 2026
Lecture A2 (2026-08-27): Introduction to Simulation Modeling
In this lecture, we introduce the three different simulation methodologies (agent-based modeling, system dynamics modeling, and discrete event system simulation) and then focus on how stochastic modeling is used within discrete-event system simulation. In particular, we define terms such as system, dynamic system, state, state variable, activity, delay, resource, entity, and the notion of "input modeling."
Tuesday, August 25, 2026
Lecture A1 (2026-08-25): Introduction to Modeling
In this lecture, we introduce Industrial and Systems Engineering as a blend of science and engineering that necessitates model building. We then define model (as something that answers a "What If" question) and different types of models. This gives us an opportunity to discuss how modeling is less about describing reality and more about generating tools to do useful things/make useful predictions. We end with a comparison of mental and quantitative models, as well as a comparison of different types of quantitative models (including simulation modeling).
Thursday, August 20, 2026
Lecture 0 (2026-08-20): Introduction to the Course and Its Policies
This short lecture introduces the IEE 475 course (Simulating Stochastic Systems) for the Fall 2026 semester. Due to issues with the projector and the camera in the room, the video feed only shows the slides that are being shared (but there is audio that narrates them, and any pointing to the slides is done with a pointer reflected on the video). Future videos this semester will be of higher quality.
Tuesday, December 2, 2025
Lecture M (2025-12-02): Final Exam Review
In this lecture, we prepare for the final exam and give a brief review of all topics from the course.
Tuesday, November 25, 2025
Lecture K2 (2025-11-25): Variance Reduction Techniques, Part 2 (Antithetic Variates and Importance Sampling)
In this lecture, we review four different Variance Reduction Techniques (VRT's). Namely, we discuss common random numbers (CRNs), control variates, antithetic variates (AVs), and importance sampling. Each one of these is a different approach to reducing the variance in the estimation of relative or absolute performance of a simulation model. Variance reduction is an alternative way to increase the power of a simulation that is hopefully less costly than increasing the number of replications.
We wrap up with a summary of the four VRT's that we have discussed in the class – Common Random Numbers (CRN's), Antithetic Variates (AV's), Importance Sampling, and Control Variates.
Thursday, November 20, 2025
Lecture K1 (2025-11-20): Variance Reduction Techniques, Part 1 (CRNs and Control Variates)
In this lecture, we start by reviewing approaches for absolute and relative performance estimation in stochastic simulation. This begins with a reminder of the use of confidence intervals for estimation of performance for a single simulation model. We then move to different ways to use confidence intervals on mean DIFFERENCES to compare two different simulation models. We then move to the ranking and selection problem for three or more different simulation models, which allows us to talk about analysis of variance (ANOVA) and post hoc tests (like the Tukey HSD or Fisher's LSD). After that review, we move on to introducing variance reduction techniques (VRTs) which reduce the size of confidence intervals by experimentally controlling/accounting for alternative sources of variance (and thus reducing the observed variance in response variables). We discuss Common Random Numbers (CRNs), which use a paired/blocked design to reduce the variance caused by different random-number streams, and then we introduce control variates (CVs), which allow for reducing the output variance of a measurement by leveraging information about other sources that may be corrupting the output.
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